Thanksgiving: quiet, a little cool locally – Northeast Storm may create travel headaches nationwide

Thanksgiving 2014 and the weekend to follow look rather uneventful locally from a weather standpoint this year.  The forecast map for Thanksgiving morning shows a broad polar high pressure area over North Dakota extending south into the Gulf of Mexico.  This will give the area partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and highs a little below average – in the upper 30s to around 40.  Winds should not be an issue either.  As the high moves off to the east, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue through the weekend.  Highs by Saturday will climb into the 50s..before retreating back to the 40s Sunday as the next cool front..shown here in southern and central Canada moves through.

2014-11-24-1319-12ZSFCTHG

That front will also be dry and will not produce much if anything in the form of rain or snow.

 

The biggest issue for travel on Thanksgiving and the following weekend will be over the Northeast as repeated runs of the computer models show a plowable snow. Don’t focus on the totals, those will change, but on the location of the heaviest snows.  Some of the nation’s busiest airports will be impacted, with ripple effects possibly nationwide.  If you have travel plans to or through this area, check with your air carrier, and if driving, monitor local forecasts in the area you’re headed to and adjust accordingly.

2014-11-24-1319-12ZECMTSN

Looking back at the weekend weather, here are the total rainfall amounts from lunchtime Saturday through noon today.

2014-11-24-1256-OBSQPFEAX 2014-11-24-1256-OBSQPFLSX

That should about do it for November rains, we don’t see any more weather systems which would produce significant rain (or snow) the rest of this month (the next 7 days).

The next three graphics (click to enlarge) show how much precipitation fell in November, the difference from average and the percent of average.

2014-11-24-1340-NOVPCPTTL2014-11-24-1340-NOVPCPDEP 2014-11-24-1340-NOVPCPPCT

ALL of the district had a sub-par month with the KC/Topeka area one quarter to one half the average rain, while STL/SEMO/SW IL 50-75% of average rainfall.  Odds are these totals won’t change much in the next week.

We’ll update the Thanksgiving outlook tomorrow.

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