Rains will wrap tonight; clouds to hang around. Quiet and seasonable next week but stormier and colder pattern lurks late month and beyond

We’ve had some beneficial rains today, long steady light to moderate rains, just what the area needed to ward off drought.   The weekend won’t be the best as we’ll see moisture in the form of clouds and fog Saturday with some breaks Sunday.  In a nutshell:

Tonight.. rain has wound down for KC/Topeka and will continue for Columbia/KC/STL. Steadier rains will diminish to more showery-type rains for SEMO/SW IL. Fog may become an issue for parts of the area tonight as temperatures begin to cool.  Lows will remain 35 to 42 degrees so no freezing issues.

Saturday.. Fog and low clouds will stick around and temperatures won’t move far off the morning lows, staying in the low 40s.  Could be a few breaks late in the day.

Sunday.. Lots of clouds with a few more breaks than Saturday and temperatures very similar with highs in the 40s.

Next week.. Looks mostly dry at this time with temperatures right around to slightly above average. Highs in the 40s to 50s and lows in the 20s to 30s.

late afternoon radar shows the rain moving through/out of the area:

2014-12-05-1618-SATSFCRAD

Through 4 PM Friday, rains have totaled:

Cape Girardeau… 0.74″

Lee’s Summit MO… 0.49″

Olathe KS… 0.82″

St. Joseph MO.. 0.14″

Chanute KS.. 1.31″

Mount Vernon IL… 1.82″

Joplin MO.. 0.41″

Vichy/Rolla MO.. 0.93″

Kirksville MO.. 0.22″

Kansas City MO.. 0.64 (International Airport)

Kansas City MO.. 0.36″ (Downtown Airport)

Columbia MO.. 0.66″

Farmington MO.. 1.34″

St. Louis MO.. 0.93″

Sparta IL.. 0.87″

Carbondale IL.. 0.93″

 

Super Typhoon Hagupit (22W) now approaching the Philippines has been in the news lately and some of the upper level moisture from Hagupit (the name Hagupit means “to lash” in traditional Pilipino) is flowing across the Pacific into weather systems which have been impacting the west coast.  The moisture for our rain has originated in the tropical eastern Pacific, and before that in the south Pacific (where it is late Spring) in an area of thunderstorms called the South Pacific Convergence Zone.

2014-12-05-1541-EDDGLBWVP

The typhoon is forecast to track westward, crossing the Philippines then weaken as it approaches SE Asia early next week. Colder low level air surging southwestward should  put an end to Hagupit before it reaches the Asian coast, but severe damage may be inflicted upon the Philippines.   Unlike October’s Nuri, the storm is not expected to be absorbed into the Pacific jet stream.

Next week should be fairly quiet for us and temperatures near to slightly above average.  We remain firmly under the influence of a strong and mild cross Pacific jet stream. The jet originates off east of Japan and accelerates to speeds nearing 200 mph at 40K feet as it crosses over the Dateline and begins to slow as it approaches California.  This means another week with the action on both coasts and it will help to bring another wet storm system to California/Arizona next week.

2014-12-05-1651-12ZECMNHI

The much weaker jet flows north over the Canadian Prairies and then heads southeast along the Great Lakes.  This pattern looks to produce another Thanksgiving week-type coastal storm on the east coast next week so if you have travel plans to or through either coast next week check for flight delays and monitor forecasts.

Active weather may return week after next

Still no sign of substantial cold or snow through next week, but indications continue to hint at a more active pattern the week after next and cold to follow late month and beyond.  A look at the forecast chart for a week from Monday shows the fast Pacific jet has retracted westward and now slows down just east of the Dateline (instead of just off the coast).  The slowing jet amplifies into waves from off the west coast through North America to the western Atlantic.  At the base of the waves, upper level storms are shown.

2014-12-05-1652-12ZECMNHI

This is would be a very active and stormy pattern for the central U.S., if this model verifies.  Depending upon where that “X” is located (if this solution were to verify) and how it tracks will determine if warm rain and thunderstorms fall or cold and snow.

Colder into January?

Looking at some of the more reliable longest range guidance we have. .and this is JUST guidance.. the upper air chart for Jan 1, 2015 shows the pattern back to the one we had most of last winter, with a big western ridge and a cold eastern trough.  This re-opens the door to cold cross-polar flow.  The split flow in the atmosphere with the dip in the southern (green arrows) branch brings upper level moisture and energy under the cold.

 

2014-12-05-1612-EPSMESCTR

Into January, the recently very warm CFSv2 guidance has now flipped to a colder signal for next month with a signal for dryness south and more moist conditions north.  This agrees with some other long term guidance which has been showing this signal for several months now. (These charts show the difference from average in temperature and precipitation)

2014-12-05-1604-CFSV2JANT 2014-12-05-1604-CFSV2JANP

We’ll keep an eye on this in the weeks to come.  Monday we’ll recap the rain totals.  Have a good weekend!

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