Back to the clouds.. milder weather still on track for the Weekend

 

We’ve cooled down and clouded up again following the passage of an overnight cool front after one milder day yesterday.  Warmer days are still ahead for the weekend, but we’ll have cloud issues to deal with again.

Through Thursday… clouds hang tough in the west, with perhaps a spot of mist, fog or drizzle west on Wednesday.  Continued seasonably cool WED, but we begin a slight warm-up Thurs…mid 40s likely.

Friday-Sunday…mild but with lots of clouds.  Highs pop back to the mid 50s Friday and may near 55-60 Saturday. We could see a few showers in the KC area late Sunday, but timing the next incoming weather system is an issue and this may well be delayed into Sunday night.

Mon-Tues of next week.. back to seasonal averages with 40s for highs. Rain chances arrive back across the district. This system is Pacific in origin and will not bring a threat of any wintry weather concerns and no major Arctic blast is currently expected to follow the system.

In depth:

The Northern Hemisphere as a whole remains very active..just not our particular slice of it.  (former typhoon) Hagupit has just about run its course in the distant reaches of the Pacific, but is feeding moisture to the storm at the West Coast. A major storm is also swirling in the distant North Atlantic with hurricane force winds threatening that area and possibly the UK.

The coasts of the country continue to be active.  A major nor’easter is impacting the inland Northeast. Heavy snow and significant ice is expected, especially for upstate NY, VT, NH and ME. Meanwhile, heavy rain and high elevation snow is the issue out west.  Another 3-5″ of rain is expected from San Francisco to Seattle in the next three days with the heaviest rains on the coastal ranges.  East of there rain drops off to light to non-existent amounts.

2014-12-09-0902-EDD72HSNW  2014-12-09-0902-EDD72HICE2014-12-09-0902-EDD72HQPF

The moisture out west is, in part, thanks to (former typhoon) Hagupit now weakening in the South China Sea.  This water vapor image shows a moisture channel from Hagupit to the west coast of the U.S.

2014-12-09-1158-EDDTRPWVP

That moisture has arrived thanks to the “flamethrower” Pacific jet stream we’ve discussed recently.  That phenomenon is well-represented in the above satellite image.

The Atlantic has a hurricane-force storm south of Greenland and around Iceland expected to bring storm force (sustained winds of 55-73 mph) wind and hurricane force wind (74 mph+) to the North Atlantic.  These damaging winds are expected to impact Ireland and Scotland with the United Kingdom Met Office issuing an “amber severe weather warning” for wind. They use a different criteria than we do in the U.S, their scale is based upon the probability (likelihood) and impact a weather event will have on the public (green-yellow-amber-red).  Were this expected in the U.S, we would likely see a “high wind warning” or over water, a very rare “hurricane force wind warning”

2014-12-09-1159-EDDNRAIRU

Around here we’re back under the clouds again thanks to a passing cool front.  This mid afternoon satellite image shows low clouds locked in most everywhere with temperatures which have gone nowhere today.

2014-12-09-1347-SATSFCRAD

Wins have turned northerly to northeasterly with the lowest speeds out west.

Weekend Warm-up:

Mild weather is still expected this weekend and this chart, valid at noon Saturday, shows temperatures 10-17 degrees above the averages across the region.  We will be dealing with plenty of clouds and readings would be solidly in the mid to upper 60s were we to have sunshine all day.  Still, 55 to 60 in mid December is not bad at all.

2014-12-09-1351-12ZECMTAN

Rain next week:

With regards to our potential for rain early next week — 2 of the three longer range models print out moderate rain for the district- highest out west, the European and Canadian Models.  The U.S. model is much less enthusiastic, with light rains west and little rain east.  The difference stems in how the various models deal with the upper level storm.  The European/Canadian solution brings a more intact storm more east-west across the district, while the U.S. version weakens the low and takes it east-southeast into the southeast U.S. Here are the three models one-week estimate at rainfall.  (Click to view full-size).

2014-12-09-1351-12ZECM168 2014-12-09-1351-12ZGEM168 2014-12-09-1351-12ZGFX168

NONE of these models currently expect significant wintry weather at this time.  We’ll have to watch that, as it will be mid December.

 Short on Snow

In terms of where we’re at for snow cover compared with the seven years prior, we’re far behind. In fact, since 2007, this year has the LOWEST snow on the ground on December 9 compared to years past.  Even the “non winter” of 2011-2012 had more snow cover on this date than this year.  This graphic was put together by the NWS in Kansas City MO. Last year, we had just finished the major snow event for SEMO/SW IL/STL. In all other years, except 2009, snow was north of the district — but it was greater in coverage than this year.

2014-12-09-1117-DEC09SNWC

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