A much quieter week shaping up as we head into a cooler and drier pattern this week and the threat for severe weather looks very low at this point. We’re not looking for any significant frosts or freezes, but jackets will be in order each morning with lows a few degrees either side of 40 and highs mostly in the 60s. Several days of strong late April sun will help the days “feel” warmer, except for Monday which will have gusty northwesterly winds.
Taking a look a the upper air pattern, the polar jet continues to retreat, but we’re still going to be dealing with a cut-off low. The low which has been churning through the southwest last week with occasional rains and storms this weekend has opened into a trough and will lift into Canada Monday, where it joins with another wave becoming a rather large cut-off low over the Great Lakes. It should sit and spin there for a better part of the week as a weaker trough develops just to the SW of California and then weakens as it heads east late week. This keeps our area in NW/WNW flow which is a cooler and drier pattern for us. There may be some spot showers from time to time with ill-defined ripples in this flow, but organized severe weather does not appear to be a threat at this time.
Including rain which falls today and tonight, generally 1/2″ to 1″ (extreme southern parts of the western district) generally will fall with most of that Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Recent rains have helped beat back the drought a bit across the west in the past week, and with this weeks rains, we should see a further improvement in maps issued this next Thursday. Here’s the latest map, which does not count rains falling this weekend:
Week in Review:
Temperatures continued to be mild east of the Rockies and in California with cooler weather over the inter-mountain west, thanks in part to the upper level storm parked over that area most of the week.
Rainfall eluded the eastern district (especially STL) for a change (this map runs through 7AM Sunday and does not count rains falling after that point).
The west finally saw some widespread decent rainfall events. (This map runs through 7AM Sunday and does not count rains falling after that point).
There were no tropical cyclones in any basin this week as we begin to enter the transition season from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere. A few showers and storms are noted near the equator in the Indian Ocean and there are some other scattered thunderstorms in the Pacific south of the Equator and some clouds north of the Equator east of the dateline. Activity will begin to increase in the western Pacific in the coming weeks and it looks like that basin may have a very busy season.
We’ll update the blog next week and FB for the drought update on Thursday –and any developments in severe weather potential.